President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is reportedly signaling a sudden “Tinubu Shettima withdrawal” amid the 2027 election campaign, igniting speculation that the ruling party will replace Vice‑President Kashim Shettima with a non‑Muslim running mate. The potential shift, if confirmed, could reshape the political landscape and impact how Nigeria’s electorate votes in the next election.
Background and Context
When Tinubu secured the All‑Progressive Congress (APC) presidential candidacy in 2023, he chose Kashim Shettima of Jigawa State as his vice‑presidential partner, a decision that solidified the “Muslim‑Muslim” ticket. The pairing was credited with winning wide support among northern Muslim voters and balancing the party’s internal factions. However, the partnership has been under scrutiny since the 2023 polls, as several opposition figures and civil society groups raised concerns about the ticket’s representation of Nigeria’s religious diversity.
In December 2025, remarks from Reverend Ezekiel Dachomo, a senior minister of the Church of Christ in Nations, sparked renewed debate. During a televised interview on Channels Television, he denounced the Tinubu‑Shettima ticket as a “complete genocide to Christians” and called for the removal of Shettima. He warned that a Muslim‑headed administration could marginalize Christians, echoing fears that the APC’s identity politics might trigger sectarian divisions.
Simultaneously, the United States has intensified scrutiny of Nigeria. Former President Donald Trump recently declared Nigeria a country of particular concern (CPC) due to reported Christian killings by militant groups. The US stance added pressure on the Tinubu administration to demonstrate a commitment to religious inclusiveness, particularly as the 2027 presidential election approaches.
Key Developments
1. Social Media and Loyalist Claims
- On X (formerly Twitter), Atiku Abubakar’s supporters released a post stating, “Tinubu will drop Shettima.” The tweet included a photo of Shettima with the caption, “If you still think Shettima is on the ticket, you’re an IST class Mugu.” The claim, shared by AbdulRasheed Shehu and Phamacio Yunusa, generated thousands of retweets and amplified the rumor.
- In a separate X thread, a verified account of a media aide documented that President Tinubu had deployed new Hilux and Hummer buses for the 2027 campaign. The aide added, “If you still think Shettima is on the ticket, you are out of touch with reality. The 2027 campaign is not a Muslim‑Muslim ticket.” This image—paired with a hashtag—quickly went viral.
2. Official Statements Amid the Rumor Storm
Facing mounting pressure, Tinubu’s spokesperson, Mr. Emeka Okafor, issued a brief statement on Friday, denying any official decision at this time. “We have not made any changes to the running mate. All decisions are made through consultation with the party and the electorate. The nation’s interest remains paramount,” Okafor said. The spokesperson highlighted that the party’s strategy would remain flexible to adapt to evolving electoral dynamics.
3. Shettima’s Temporary Resignation From the Vice‑Presidency
Earlier this year, Shettima vacated his seat temporarily to promote a teenage girl, Joy Ogah, as part of a public diplomacy initiative to support girl‑child education. While the gesture was lauded, critics argued that the temporary absence could be interpreted as a strategic pause by the president to reevaluate the vice‑presidential partnership.
4. Party Leadership Meetings
The APC convened a series of emergency meetings in Abuja and Kano to gauge support for a potential running‑mate shift. According to insiders, discussions were largely divided between two camps: one favoring a senior senator from the South‑West, and another advocating for a deputy governor from the South‑East. No consensus emerged, but the mere fact that the party tabled the discussion suggests the “Tinubu Shettima withdrawal” is under serious consideration.
Impact Analysis
For Nigerians, the potential removal of Shettima carries significant electoral consequences:
- Electoral Base Realignment: The Muslim‑Muslim coalition has historically driven turnout in the north. Replacing Shettima could dilute this support, potentially benefiting opposition parties that field Christian or mixed tickets.
- Religious Polarisation: A shift could either de-escalate fears among Christians or, conversely, galvanise religious factions that protest perceived ‘disloyalty’ to the ruling coalition’s initial promise.
- International Perception: The US and other Western donors monitor religious inclusivity as a criterion for aid and investment. A visible shift toward greater religious representation could improve Nigeria’s diplomatic standing.
- Business Confidence: The private sector watches political stability closely. Uncertainty could depress investor confidence, especially in sectors sensitive to social stability such as oil and gas, agriculture, and technology.
Expert Insights and Practical Guidance
While the political saga unfolds, academics and political strategists advise stakeholders to approach the situation with caution:
Professor Nnamdi Ekeru, political scientist at the University of Lagos, says: “We are witnessing a classic recalibration of leadership image. The president’s decision to consider a change is likely a response to growing dissatisfaction among Christian voters and the heightened scrutiny from the United States. However, the timing—so close to the 2027 election—means the impact will be immediate and profound.”
For the electorate, particularly young voters and diaspora communities, researchers recommend staying well-informed:
- Check official APC communications rather than social media rumors.
- Track legislative amendments that might signal candidate changes.
- Engage in community discussions to gauge how the shift, if any, may alter local campaign strategies.
Political analysts also advise that any potential replacement should be selected through a transparent, consultative process:
- Inclusion of representatives from all major religious groups.
- Clear criteria that emphasize national unity and competence over sectarian identity.
- Communication of the reasoning behind any changes to the broader public.
Looking Ahead
Regardless of the final decision, the “Tinubu Shettima withdrawal” narrative is shaping the next election cycle:
- Pre‑Election Party Ralliement: The APC faces the challenge of re‑unifying its base while addressing growing calls for diversity.
- Elections Commission Mandate: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) must monitor the situation closely to ensure that any candidate change complies with legal timelines and election procedures.
- Opposition Strategy: Parties such as the PDP, LP, and APC will adapt their campaign messaging – either by highlighting the potential split or reinforcing unity on national issues.
- International Engagement: Diplomats and aid organizations are expected to observe how Nigeria’s government handles the controversy, especially regarding minority rights and religious tolerance.
In the coming weeks, the announcement of a new running mate (if any) will likely occur during a high-profile press event. Until then, observers will scrutinize policy statements, campaign itineraries, and party meetings for more definitive signs.
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